High stakes on the high seas as US, China test limits of military power

High stakes on the high seas as US, China test limits of military power

On the morning of August 13, the USS Higgins (DDG-76) transited without permission to the contested waters just outside Scarborough Shoal. As it approached the limits of China’s declared territorial sea, People's Liberation Army Navy vessels operating in the area trailed the warship. Shortly thereafter, Beijing released a statement declaring that it had "monitored, warned, and expelled" the U.S. destroyer for violating Chinese sovereignty.

In a similar response, the Department of Defense issued a statement on behalf of the Navy stating that Higgins' passage was part of a freedom-of-navigation operation and was consistent with international law, and that China's claims to the contrary were "false."

Deep in the Indo-Pacific, the event was a telling glimpse of the new front line in the world of naval power - controlling the lanes of the sea, projecting force, and using alliances. 

"There is no evident winning advantage," Brent Sadler, a retired Navy submariner and senior fellow for naval warfare at the Heritage Foundation, told us. "The method in which we fight is quite different - you can't simply look at the number of ships or munitions and determine which side is better, that's not the way naval warfare plays out."

However, a cursory observation of naval capacity still arrives at the conclusion that the United States holds the upper hand. The Navy operates around the globe, employs nuclear-powered carriers, and has a depth of experience supporting operations far from home, while China's navy has just begun to reach out beyond its near seas.

Mr. Sadler said Beijing's military position has only become increasingly aggressive. "Based on how confidently they are acting against us at sea and in the air, I think they believe they could go and win. A lot of them would die, but that's not the point; winning for the Communist Party is having Taiwan, no matter the costs."

"A lot of signals coming from China's military buildup indicate that Beijing plans to utilize military force in order to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific," a senior War Department official told trendpost Digital. 

The War Department is focused on cooperating with partners and increasing investment to "enhance production of critical munitions and advanced capabilities, and harden our critical infrastructure and supply chains against Chinese influence," according to the official.

American defense experts are projecting that 2027 will be the year that China has the capability to conquer Taiwan. They also stress that China is outpacing U.S. military shipbuilding by a wide margin. Because the workforce issues, weak supply chains, and unstable funding, per a CSIS assessment, China's commercial and military shipyards have an estimated total output capacity that is about 200 times that of the total U.S. shipbuilding capacity.

There are only a few U.S. shipyards capable of building large naval ships, primarily Huntington Ingalls in Virginia and Mississippi and General Dynamics in Connecticut and Maine. This is far fewer than the Cold War era when America had more than a dozen producing combatants. The delays in the shipbuilding process are compounded by material backlogs, changing Navy needs, and stop-start budgets. 

TAIWAN GENERAL WARNS CHINA’S MILITARY DRILLS COULD BE PREPARATION FOR BLOCKADE OR WAR, VOWS TO RESIST

According to the Pentagon’s 2024 China Military Power Report, the People's Liberation Army Navy has surpassed 370 ships making it the largest navy by hull count in the world. While the U.S. Navy is smaller at around 290 deployable ships, they carry more weight with more tonnage, endurance, and capability. China's state-directed industrial capacity allows shipyards to ramp up and increase output aside from any consideration of profit.

“They’re pricking with the bayonet to see what we’ll do,” Sadler said in reference to recent Chinese provocations against U.S. partners in the South China Sea. “The bloodying of a treaty ally like the Philippines is their way of trying American psychic resolve." 

Those production restrictions have also contributed to a larger debate inside the Navy — whether to continue investing in massive aircraft carriers or shift to a more distributed, missile-heavy fleet of submarines and unmanned vessels. 

"We should have been doing things a decade ago," Sadler pointed out. "Three or four administrations share the blame for where we find ourselves in a precarious position today." 

Sadler added that we must fix the industrial base in order to maintain deterrence. "In order to deter war, we need to close China's window of opportunity quickly. That means building more firepower on unmanned vessels that we can build quickly — but also fixing our shipbuilding base if we’re going to stay in the fight." 

Below the surface: The silent maneuvering for the Pacific 

As Chinese missiles threaten U.S. surface vessels from the mainland; the Navy is increasingly considering its submarines a more survivable way to hold Chinese targets at risk.

While the battle taking place offshore is noisy and had a large presence, the battle occurring in the ocean is hushed — but much more decisive. Both countries are running huge operations on submarine warfare, where finding them means you survive, and it's technological superiority over numbers.

The U.S. Navy is still the owner of the most advanced submarine fleet in the world; approximately 50 nuclear attack submarines that can evade detection for months and position for strikes anywhere on the planet. The Virginia-class submarine — designed for stealth, intelligence missions, and cruise-missile strikes — make up the backbone of the U.S. deterrent below the surface. And, soon, it will be supported by the Columbia-class missile boats, carrying the nation’s nuclear arsenals into the mid-century.

However, shipbuilding is behind schedule. The Navy is currently completing only one or two Virginia-class submarines per year, significantly below the Navy's goals of three to four, as shipyards struggle with producing the two boats in duplicate. Any delay decreases the period of the U.S. advantage.

"I'd never claim to have absolute supremacy over anything. There is severe hubris in that claim that will get you killed," Sadler said. "If they engaged on our terms, we would surely defeat them, but that's not how it works - their approach will be to overwhelm one of our submarines by using helicopters, surface ships, fixed sensors, mines, and their own submarines."

"Submarine operations are critically important," said Mark Cancian, who is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "They can operate within the Chinese defense, and in naval war-games, they had tremendous value in attacking Chinese amphibious ships during an invasion."

At the same time, China is closing the gap. The PLAN operates around 60 submarines, most of which are diesel electric boats built for regional defense and ambush tactics in shallow seas. Now they are deploying a mixed fleet of older submarines alongside new Type 093B nuclear attack submarines and Type 094 ballistic-missile submarines that are both quieter and longer-ranged than previous generations. The Pentagon has warned that, in the early 2030s, China could have nearly 80 submarines, including at least a dozen nuclear-powered submarines.

Operating in close proximity provides Beijing advantages — shorter supply lines and the benefit of dense coastal missile defenses. If a confrontation arises related to Taiwan or the South China Sea, the Chinese submarines could overwhelm the Luzon and Taiwan straits' chokepoints, forcing U.S. forces to fight their way in.

In response, the United States is depending on its network of allies and bases: Japan's undersea surveillance systems, Australian patrols and AUKUS, which will deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra later this decade.

"Submarines forward-based in Australia are worth three times their numbers simply because they are geographically close to the threat. The Australians will sustain it," Sadler said. "This is a large source of consternation for the Chinese — and that's good for deterrence."

 

Controlling the seafloor: The next phase of power competition

Undersea arena is about more than submarines and torpedoes — it's about information.

Nearly 95% of global internet traffic and trillions of dollars in financial transactions travel through fiber-optic cables on the seabed, many of which connect nations in the Indo-Pacific. U.S. defense planners are increasingly thinking of these cables as wartime targets and/or intelligence collection assets, as China extends its deep-sea research and cable-laying fleets distinguishing between their use for civilian versus military purposes. Western analysts warn that any regional conflict could disrupt communications or give one side an opportunity to access data flowing globally — a cyber battle underneath. Sadler stated,

 "This competition with China is a completely different brand of Cold War — much more difficult".